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It's Not You: Part 2 - Spending in Context
Canadian Procurement Pulse: Procurement Whiplash Edition (2023-2025)
Joe Noss
29 Jul
Welcome to the Procurement Rollercoaster!
If Canada's government procurement market were an amusement park ride, the last three years would definitely have been "The Intimidator." Wild highs, stomach-dropping lows, and twists you never saw coming—this market has left contractors dizzy. Massive outlier contracts gave way to severe belt-tightening, reshaping procurement as we know it.
Overall Market Volatility (Jan 1 - July 20 Comparison)
Year | Contracts | Total Value ($B) | Change vs. Previous Year |
|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 48,976 | 23.0 | N/A |
2024 | 45,069 | 52.1 | 🔼 +126.5% explosion! |
2025 | 19,415 | 20.4 | 🔽 -61.0% crash |
2024 dominated by massive anomalies, notably BANCTEC's $20B and SkyAlyne’s $11.2B deals.
2025 saw a dramatic crash, plunging below even 2023 spending.
The Great IT & Management Consulting Implosion
Insights:
Management consulting spending didn't just fall—it plunged off a cliff by 73.6% in one year.
IT consulting spending was chopped in half, reflecting drastic governmental belt-tightening.
Vendor count shrank dramatically, from 344 in IT consulting (2024) to only 193 in 2025.
Top Vendor Musical Chairs (No repeat champions here!)
Year | Top Vendors | Sector Highlights |
|---|---|---|
2023 | Airbus Defence ($3.7B), Babcock ($1.2B), IBM ($722M) | Aerospace & Defence Dominance |
2024 | BANCTEC ($20.0B), SkyAlyne ($11.2B), I.M.P Group ($3.5B) | Huge Outlier Contracts |
2025 | Medavie ($711M), VMware ($375M), Accenture ($239M) | Health, Software, IT Consulting Pivot |
Zero consistency—last year's champions are this year's benchwarmers.
Dramatic Procurement Timing Shifts: 2023-2025
Quarterly Spending Distribution
Quarter | 2023 ($B) | 2024 ($B) | 2025 ($B) |
|---|---|---|---|
Q1 (Jan-Mar) | 9.6 (41.6%) | 12.3 (23.7%) | 20.3 (99.7%) |
Q2 (Apr-Jun) | 11.3 (49.2%) | 15.6 (29.9%) | 0.05 (0.3%) |
Q3 (Jul 1-20) | 2.1 (9.2%) | 24.2 (46.4%) | N/A |
Shocking Timing Insights:
2024 July Explosion: $24.2B (46% of the year) spent in just 20 days due to mega-contracts.
2025 Q2 Freeze: Almost complete stop in procurement activity—just $54M spent.
End-of-Fiscal-Year Rush: March now accounts for the lion's share, reaching 87% of Q1 in 2025.
Procurement Flip: 2025 reversed traditional patterns, concentrating spending in Q1 instead of spreading through Q2.
Volume Collapse: Monthly contracts dramatically dropped from thousands to hundreds in Q2 2025.
Strategic Implications for Vendors
Budget Cycle Adaptation: Prepare for heavy front-loading in Q1 and uncertainty in subsequent quarters. Potentially a huge pickup in Q4 2025.
Planning Difficulty: Vendors must adapt quickly to unpredictable procurement windows.
Diversify Channels: Federal volatility makes provincial and municipal governments essential to your survival strategy.
Bottom Line for Contractors (2025 vs. 2024)—Time to Pivot!
Significant procurement timing volatility demands new vendor strategies.
Dependence solely on federal spending has become riskier than eating gas station sushi.
Diversification across multiple government levels is critical for sustained success.
Yukon & Nunavut have had a ton of contracts this year - maybe you should start looking North?
Our Key Recommendation:
Federal procurement is on a wild ride—don't bet your business on it alone. Provincial and municipal opportunities should be top priorities to ensure long-term viability.
Remember: In procurement, as in rollercoasters, it's wise to keep your options open—and maybe keep a sick bag handy. 🎢😉
Looking to diversify from the Feds? Publicus provides information on every contract in the country, every government entity, and every historical award. Reach out for custom reporting on priority accounts, or access to our opportunity analytics platform.