Sorry Not Sorry: How Canada's Most Polite Lobbyists Get Results

Honestly, there was not a ton of procurement news this week, so instead, I decided to dive into the Lobby registration data from the post-Carney period.

SORRY NOT SORRY: HOW CANADA'S MOST POLITE LOBBYISTS GET RESULTS

If there's one thing Canadians know better than apologizing unnecessarily, it's how to navigate the halls of power when it matters most. Our analysis of lobbying communications during the recent US-Canada trade tensions reveals that behind our "sorry" exterior lies a sophisticated influence machine that would make even the most seasoned Ottawa insider spill their Tim Hortons.

About the data source: LobbyCanada provides a database of all registered communications between lobbyists and public officials. Lobbyists are required to register formal outreach and conversations they have with politicians or bureaucrats. Regularly, lobbyists will meet government officials at galas, parties, or conferences, and not register these communications. As a result, LobbyCanada only captures the public facing engagement. While limited, it is still interesting.

THE FIVE POWER PLAYS OF SUCCESSFUL LOBBYING

The data exposes clear patterns in how organizations secured policy exemptions during Canada's trade crisis:

1. Strategic Timing is Everything: 

• Organizations increased lobbying efforts by a staggering 1,400% in the week following Canada's April 3rd countermeasures announcement, jumping from 12 communications to 168.

• Activity peaked at 192 communications the following week, proving that successful lobbying requires mobilization within 7-14 days of major policy shifts.

2. Department-Specific Targeting: 

• Finance Canada officials received 37 lobbying communications in the week following tariff announcements, compared to an average of 12 for other departments—a 308% increase.

• Patrick Halley (Assistant Deputy Minister, Finance) alone received 19 communications, making him the most targeted official during the entire period.

3. Topic Pivot After Policy Announcements: 

• Before April 3rd, International Trade represented 56% of lobbying topics, while Economic Development was only 22%.

• After the announcement, Economic Development surged to 58% of communications, overtaking International Trade (42%), showing a clear strategic pivot from prevention to mitigation.

4. Consistency Beats Intensity: 

• Organizations with consistent weekly lobbying (3+ weeks of activity) secured exemptions in 73% of cases, compared to only 28% for those with single-week spikes.

• Auto sector organizations maintained an average of 14 weekly communications throughout April and ultimately received specific carve-outs. Like Canadian winters, it's not the intensity but the persistence that breaks you down.

5. Prime Ministerial Access Timing: .

• Direct lobbying of Prime Minister Carney increased by 400% (from 1 to 5 communications) in the 72 hours before his May 5th meeting with President Trump.

• This 3-day window accounted for 83% of all direct Prime Ministerial lobbying during the entire three-month period analyzed.

• To be fair, Carney was busy winning an election and getting some much deserved respite, so it would have been hard to connect with him any time earlier anyway.

THE 7-DAY MOBILIZATION WINDOW

The data shows lobbyists moved faster than a Toronto landlord raising rents after interest rate cuts:

• Lobbying activity surged by 1,400% in the week following Canada's April 3rd countermeasures

• Communications jumped from just 12 to 168 in a single week

• Activity peaked at 192 communications the following week

WHO GETS LOBBIED: FOLLOW THE REAL DECISION-MAKERS

When it comes to targeting officials, organizations demonstrated surgical precision that would make our healthcare system jealous:

The hidden pattern: Assistant Deputy Ministers received significantly more lobbying communications than Ministers themselves. Smart lobbyists know Ministers are just for photo ops with giant scissors—it's the ADMs who actually get things done.

DEPARTMENT TARGETING: WHERE THE INFLUENCE FLOWS

Lobbying efforts were concentrated among key departments with the precision of Quebec separating English and French on signs:

• Finance Canada: 89 communications

• Innovation, Science and Economic Development: 76 communications

• Global Affairs Canada: 42 communications

• Prime Minister's Office: 31 communications

• National Defence: 27 communications

What's changed: Finance Canada officials saw a 308% increase in lobbying after tariff announcements.

CONSISTENCY BEATS INTENSITY: THE 73% ADVANTAGE

Our analysis reveals perhaps the most important insight of all—consistent lobbying dramatically outperforms single-week spikes:

• Organizations maintaining consistent weekly lobbying secured exemptions in 73% of cases

• Those with single-week spikes succeeded only 28% of the time

The takeaway: Successful organizations treat lobbying like maple syrup production—it's a slow, steady process that requires patience, not a mad dash that leaves you sticky and disappointed. This is no surprise, but a data point for the lobbyists out there trying to up their retainer ;).

TECH SECTOR FOCUS: THE DEFENCE DEPARTMENT SURGE

Technology companies have been quietly but aggressively lobbying DND, which is an interesting second-order impact of ‘Liberation Day’. Tech knows there is going to be a big shift in terms of defence spending as a result of the new government, as well as Trump’s pressure, and a lot of that will be on fancy new systems.

Starting the lobbying process sooner rather than later is the best way to be well positioned to win.

Key Technology Players at DND's Door:

Cybersecurity Firms:

• Check Point Software Technologies

• CrowdStrike Inc.

• WinMagic Corporation

Enterprise Software & Cloud:

• Salesforce

• BMC Software Canada

• Red Hat Canada

• Commvault Systems

Critical insight: Assistant Deputy Minister Ross Ermel (Digital Services) received 15 communications, making him more sought-after than the last affordable housing unit in Vancouver.

YOUR LOBBYING ACTION PLAN

Based on our analysis, here's your strategic approach, as essential as keeping a snow brush in your car year-round:

1. Monitor Lobbying Intensity by Department: Use the Registry of Lobbyists to track which departments are experiencing communication surges. These are early warning systems of policy shifts that will create new procurement requirements in 3-6 months.

2. Follow the ADMs, Not Just the Ministers: Assistant Deputy Ministers are where the real procurement decisions happen. Ross Ermel at DND Digital Services received more targeted communications than most Ministers. Research which ADMs oversee your service areas and track their priorities.

3. Join Industry Associations Strategically: The data shows association-led lobbying secured exemptions at nearly triple the rate of individual company efforts. Even if you're not directly lobbying, association membership connects you to these influence networks and early intelligence.

Publicus helps government contractors navigate the complex landscape of Canadian government relations and procurement with data-driven intelligence. Our AI-powered platform monitors every lobbying activity and procurement opportunity, providing the insights you need to position strategically—whether you're from The Rock, The Peg, or anywhere in between.