Trade War Turns Shopping Local From Virtue Signal to Mandate

I know everyone is focused on the election, but nothing will change in the next 24 hours. So here is a welcome distraction: some procurement news. The "Buy Canadian" movement is transforming procurement policies across the country. Ontario wants Toronto to bypass competition for subway cars, B.C. officials have canceled American water bottle orders, and municipalities are grappling with tariff uncertainty. Here's your essential briefing on government spending in trade war times:

SUBWAY CAR SOLE-SOURCING: ONTARIO PUSHES TORONTO TO SKIP COMPETITION

Transportation Minister Makes Formal Request for Alstom Award
Source: CBC News | Date: April 25, 2025

The Situation: Ontario's Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria has formally requested the City of Toronto consider a sole-source procurement with Alstom's Thunder Bay plant for 55 new subway cars. The request comes despite the fact that the RFP has already closed and bids are currently under review by the Toronto Transit Commission.

Follow the Money:

• The contract covers 55 new subway cars for Toronto's Line 2 – coincidentally the exact number of excuses officials will need if they cancel the competitive process.

• Total project cost exceeds $2 billion for the subway car procurement.

• Each government level (federal, provincial, municipal) has contributed $758 million toward the project.

• The RFP was issued in December 2024 and has already closed.

• Contract award was originally planned for early 2026 before the minister's intervention.

What’s Next:

• Mayor Chow's office states she "supports Buying Canadian whenever possible"

• TTC spokesperson confirms bids are currently being reviewed under the existing RFP

• Transportation Minister cites "unprecedented time" and need to protect Ontario workers

• Thunder Bay city council likely to advocate for the minister's sole-source request

• In 2022, the Ford government awarded Ontario Line contract to Hitachi rather than Alstom Thunder Bay

How to win contracts in Ontario: Just have a good relationship with a minister. While there is a clear governmental case for focusing on Canadian suppliers for this RFP, one cannot help but see the transparent politics in this government trying to help a Thunder Bay-based company win a contract after being passed over in 2022. It would obviously be an economic boon for the largest city in Ontario’s North, but it may result in mediocre subways for us here in Toronto.

WATER BOTTLE PROCUREMENT: B.C. CANCELS AMERICAN ORDER AFTER SCRUTINY

Provincial Health Service Pulls Yeti Contract Following Media Inquiry
Source: Global News | Date: April 22, 2025

The Plot: BC Emergency Health Services posted an invitation to quote for 5,000 Yeti water bottles on the BC Bid website, with each bottle priced up to $80. The procurement was cancelled minutes after a Global News inquiry, with officials stating the use of "Canadian re-sellers of American goods might fall outside the B.C. government's expectations."

By The Numbers:

• The province was ready to spend up to $400,000 on premium water bottles for paramedics.

• Each American-made Yeti bottle would have cost up to $80 per unit – enough to make taxpayers choke on their own water.

• Local B.C. company Haruki offers similar bottles for just $25-35 per unit.

• Switching suppliers could save taxpayers more than $200,000 in total.

• The paramedic water bottle program began after the 2021 heat dome crisis.

What It Means For Your RFPs:

• Provincial Health Services plans to repost the bid with revised specifications

• Local B.C. company Haruki has publicly expressed interest in bidding

• Both Yeti and Haruki use factories in Asia for manufacturing, but with different price points

• Conservative leader John Rustad supports "B.C. or Canada first approach" to procurement

My Take: I am all for reducing government waste, but Yeti water bottles are truly very nice. Paramedics do important work for citizens. I think they deserve the nicer bottles. Let’s hope there are no microplastics in these Haruki ones.

MUNICIPAL INFRASTRUCTURE: TARIFF UNCERTAINTY DISRUPTS PROJECT TIMELINES

Thunder Bay's Projects Delayed As Contracts Require Revision
Source: CBC News | Date: April 21, 2025

The Challenge: Ontario municipalities are being forced to become "incredibly nimble" as the Canada-U.S. trade dispute disrupts infrastructure projects, according to Thunder Bay City Manager John Collin. The city has already extended the tender period for Victoriaville Centre demolition by over a month, partly due to tariff-related complications.

Cold Hard Facts:

• Ontario municipalities collectively spend $22 billion annually on procurement of goods and services.

• Contractors are warning of potential 15-20% cost increases for projects over $1 million due to tariff uncertainty.

• Thunder Bay's Victoriaville Centre demolition was pushed from April to May 2025 at the earliest – giving locals more time to say their goodbyes to a mall that's been on life support for years.

• The full Victoriaville project won't be completed until Fall 2026, creating extended tariff exposure.

The Procurement Reality:

• Thunder Bay engineering manager: "We need to give some sort of comfort to the contractors"

• Simply shifting all risk to contractors results in dramatically higher bid prices

• Association of Municipalities of Ontario (AMO) reports significant implications for infrastructure projects

• Thunder Bay construction association recommends "contingency allowance" for potential duties

• Complete U.S. supply chain independence "might get to that after many, many years, but the reality is some of the product required simply does not exist in Canada"

What’s on my mind: How are there two news stories about Thunder Bay in one week? Is something going on?

OFFSHORE WIND: TRADE TENSIONS COULD REVIVE GREAT LAKES ENERGY PROJECTS

Clean Air Alliance Advocates for Ending 14-Year Moratorium
Source: CBC News | Date: April 22, 2025

The Opportunity: The Ontario Clean Air Alliance is leveraging Canada-U.S. trade tensions to push for lifting the province's 2011 moratorium on offshore wind projects in the Great Lakes. The advocacy group argues offshore wind could address "sovereignty crisis, affordability crisis and climate crisis" by reducing dependency on U.S. natural gas imports.

Key Data Points:

• Ontario imposed its offshore wind moratorium in 2011, halting 5 projects that had applied for energy contracts.

• Peak electricity demand in Ontario reaches approximately 24 gigawatts.

• The Clean Air Alliance claims Great Lakes wind power could provide more than 100% of Ontario's total electricity needs – perhaps they're planning to air condition the entire province.

• Great Lakes typically have mean wind speeds exceeding 8.5 meters per second, comparable to Europe's North Sea.

• Europe's North Sea currently hosts 25 gigawatts of wind turbine capacity.

• A U.S. government report identifies potential for 35 gigawatts of fixed turbine capacity in Lake Ontario alone.

• If development started now, new Great Lakes wind projects couldn't be operational before 2032.

For Energy Contractors:

• Ontario government confirms the moratorium remains in place but has conducted "several research studies" since 2011

• Trillium Wind Power has ended its legal battle with Ontario and is proposing a new 500 MW project 17km offshore

• Ontario government recently announced consideration of 5,000 MW renewable procurement by February 2026

• Floating turbines would be most suitable for Lake Ontario's deeper offshore areas

• Technical challenges include inability to use standard installation barges due to St. Lawrence Seaway limitations

YOUR PROCUREMENT ACTION PLAN

Document Your Canadian Content: Quantify exactly what percentage of your product, supply chain, workforce, and ownership is Canadian. Calgary is already using a 10% scoring advantage for local suppliers in competitive bids – the procurement equivalent of a home-field advantage.

Implement Tariff Contingency Planning: The Thunder Bay Construction Association recommends specific "contingency allowance" line items for potential duties to protect both contractors and municipalities from unexpected cost increases.

Monitor Sole-Source Opportunities: The Ontario-Toronto subway car case demonstrates how governments may bypass traditional procurement processes for strategic Canadian suppliers, particularly for projects over $100 million.

Verify Alignment with Public Statements: Government procurement officers are under increased scrutiny to ensure their purchases align with official "buy Canadian" directives, as demonstrated by the swift cancellation of the B.C. water bottle tender.

THE BOTTOM LINE

We're entering an unprecedented period of procurement nationalism.

Smart contractors are responding with data-driven demonstration of their Canadian credentials and practical contingency planning for ongoing trade volatility.

Publicus helps government contractors find, qualify, and win more contracts with less effort. Our AI-powered platform monitors every opportunity across all government levels, so you never miss a relevant RFP again.